1.7 Million Packages Disappear Every Day
According to Security.org's annual package theft report, an estimated 1.7 million packages are lost or stolen in the United States every single day. That translates to more than 620 million packages per year that never reach their intended recipient — or arrive damaged, opened, or misdelivered.
Research from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute corroborates this scale, estimating the same 1.7 million daily figure. The USPS Office of Inspector General reported that at least 58 million packages were stolen in 2024 alone, while Safewise's 2025 report estimates approximately 250,000 packages are stolen every day — and that figure only accounts for theft, not carrier-caused losses.
These are not rounding errors. They represent a systemic failure in the parcel delivery infrastructure that costs brands, consumers, and the economy billions of dollars annually.
Inside the Hub: Where Packages Go to Get Lost
To understand why so many packages disappear, you need to understand what happens inside a carrier sorting hub. A single UPS hub processes roughly 150,000 packages every four hours. FedEx's Memphis SuperHub — the largest package sorting facility in the world — handles over 3.5 million packages per day during peak season.
At these volumes, the sorting process is a high-speed ballet of conveyor belts, automated scanners, and human handlers. When it works, it's remarkably efficient. When it doesn't, packages enter a void that the carrier's own systems struggle to recover from.
How Misscans Happen
A "misscan" occurs when a package's barcode is not properly read by the automated scanning system during sorting. This can happen for several reasons:
Label damage or obstruction. Barcodes that are wrinkled, smudged, partially covered by tape, or printed on reflective surfaces may fail to scan. In a facility processing thousands of packages per minute, a failed scan means the package is diverted to a manual handling area — or worse, routed to the wrong destination with no tracking update.
Conveyor belt speed mismatches. Packages that are too close together, oddly shaped, or improperly oriented on the conveyor belt may pass the scanner too quickly or at the wrong angle. The scanner registers nothing, and the package moves through the system as a ghost — physically present but digitally invisible.
Human error in manual handling. When automated scanning fails, packages are supposed to be manually scanned by hub workers. Under the pressure of volume targets and shift deadlines, manual scans are sometimes skipped, performed incorrectly, or applied to the wrong package.
System outages and data loss. Hub scanning systems occasionally experience software glitches, network interruptions, or database synchronization failures. Scan data recorded during these windows may be lost entirely, creating gaps in the tracking chain that are nearly impossible to reconstruct after the fact.
The "Last Scan" Problem
For consumers and brands tracking a shipment, the most frustrating scenario is the "last scan" problem: a package shows a scan at a carrier hub — often a regional sorting facility — and then goes silent. No further updates appear. The package has effectively vanished inside the carrier's own network.
When this happens, the carrier's standard response is to initiate a "trace" — an internal investigation to locate the package. But trace success rates are notoriously low. As one FedEx employee noted on Reddit, each hub deals with roughly 150,000 packages every four hours, and the odds of locating a specific misrouted package after 24 to 48 hours are slim.
The trace process itself can take 8 to 10 business days, during which the consumer has no package and no resolution. For brands, this means an angry customer, a potential chargeback, and the cost of reshipping or refunding the order — all while the carrier's investigation grinds through its bureaucratic process.
The Customer Service Nightmare
When a package goes missing, the burden of resolution falls almost entirely on the consumer and the brand. The carrier's role in the process is, by design, minimal and slow.
Filing a Claim: A Process Designed to Discourage
Each major carrier has a claims process for lost packages, but the requirements are designed to filter out as many claims as possible:
USPS requires waiting 15 business days for domestic packages (or 45 days for international) before a missing mail search can be initiated. The search itself can take an additional 7 to 14 days. If the package is not found, a claim can be filed — but only if the sender purchased insurance.
UPS allows claims to be filed after 24 hours for ground shipments, but the investigation window is 8 business days. Claims for packages without declared value coverage are limited to $100 — far below the value of most e-commerce orders.
FedEx has a similar 24-hour waiting period, but the claims process requires detailed documentation including proof of value, proof of shipment, and proof of damage or loss. The investigation can take 5 to 7 business days, and FedEx reserves the right to deny claims for packages that show a "delivered" scan — even if the customer never received them.
The "Delivered But Not Received" Gap
One of the most contentious issues in package delivery is the "delivered but not received" scenario. A carrier's tracking system shows the package as delivered — sometimes with a GPS coordinate or photo — but the customer insists they never got it.
Carriers treat a "delivered" scan as definitive proof of delivery. From their perspective, the package left their custody, and their obligation is fulfilled. But delivered scans can be inaccurate for numerous reasons: the package was left at the wrong address, the GPS coordinate was imprecise, the photo shows a different doorstep, or the carrier marked it delivered prematurely to meet performance metrics.
For brands, this creates an impossible situation. The carrier says it's delivered. The customer says it's not. The brand is caught in the middle, often absorbing the cost of a replacement or refund with no recourse from the carrier.
The Financial Impact on Brands
The direct cost of lost packages is significant, but the indirect costs are often larger:
Replacement and refund costs. When a package is lost, the brand typically reshapes or refunds the order at their own expense. For a $50 average order value, losing even 1% of shipments to carrier errors translates to $5,000 per 10,000 orders — before accounting for the cost of the replacement shipment itself.
Customer lifetime value erosion. A customer whose package is lost or delayed is significantly less likely to order again. Research consistently shows that delivery experience is the single largest driver of repeat purchase behavior in e-commerce. A lost package doesn't just cost the value of that order — it costs the lifetime value of that customer relationship.
Chargeback and dispute costs. When customers don't receive their orders and can't get resolution from the brand quickly enough, they file chargebacks with their credit card company. Each chargeback costs the brand the order value plus a $15 to $100 processing fee, and excessive chargebacks can lead to higher payment processing rates or account termination.
Customer service overhead. Every lost package generates multiple customer service interactions — emails, phone calls, chat messages, social media complaints. The cost of handling a single "where is my package" inquiry has been estimated at $5 to $10 per interaction, and most lost package cases require three to five interactions before resolution.
The Seasonal Amplification Effect
Package loss rates spike dramatically during peak shopping seasons. The correlation is straightforward: higher volumes create more sorting pressure, more temporary workers with less training, and more opportunities for misscans and misroutes.
Security.org's 2025 report found that overall package theft incidents appear to have declined for the first time in years — but the absolute numbers remain staggering. An estimated 37 million packages were stolen in 2025, with the highest concentration during November and December.
Meanwhile, cargo theft — the large-scale theft of entire shipments before they reach the last-mile delivery network — increased approximately 40% in 2024, with an estimated 65,000 thefts totaling $3.5 billion in losses across the supply chain. This trend was projected to rise another 25% in 2025.
What Brands and Consumers Can Do
The package loss problem is systemic, but it is not unsolvable. Brands that take a proactive approach to shipment protection and carrier accountability can dramatically reduce their exposure:
Protect every shipment, not just high-value ones. The traditional approach of purchasing carrier insurance only for expensive items leaves the vast majority of shipments unprotected. Comprehensive protection that covers every order — regardless of value — eliminates the gap that carriers exploit.
Demand real-time visibility. Brands should require tracking data that goes beyond basic "in transit" and "delivered" scans. Detailed hub-level scan data, exception alerts, and delivery confirmation photos provide the evidence needed to hold carriers accountable.
Audit carrier performance systematically. Rather than filing individual claims reactively, brands should track carrier performance metrics — on-time delivery rates, exception rates, claim resolution times — and use that data to negotiate better terms or switch carriers.
Automate the claims process. Manual claim filing is time-consuming and often results in missed deadlines or incomplete documentation. Automated claims systems can identify eligible claims, file them within carrier deadlines, and track resolution — recovering revenue that would otherwise be lost.
With Protected Fulfillment™, every shipment is tracked, monitored, and protected from warehouse to doorstep. When something goes wrong, we make it right — with a simple claim process, full resolution, and an incentive for your customer to come back. Start protecting every shipment →
Sources: Security.org 2025 Package Theft Annual Report; USPS Office of Inspector General (RISC-WP-25-002, May 2025); Safewise 2025 U.S. Package Theft Report; Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (2020); Talk Business Supply Chain Report (April 2025); LateShipment.com Lost Package Analysis (December 2025).